[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 29N83W TO
24.5N90W TO 18N94.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N WITHIN 60
NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. EXPECT ALSO...NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT AND TO THE WEST OF 86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 30-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
31N78W TO 27N80.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28.5N WITHIN 60 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
27.5N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 73W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES
THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 7N16W 6N27W 7N33W 5N44W. CONTINUES
FROM 9N19W TO 8N23W 8N31W AND 6N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W
AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
FROM THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. EASTWARD. THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 18N/19N...AND INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO...AND IT ENDS UP NEAR
28N103W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 29N91W 26N94W 24N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 29N67W 27N75W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N84W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGBK...
KGRY...KATP...KIPN...KIKT...AND KVOA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER MANY OF THE REST OF THE PLATFORM SITES.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER COVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND FROM BROOKSVILLE
TO THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...TO PUNTA GORDA.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 32N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 90W...
INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN WESTERN CUBA FROM
22N TO 23N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N82W 21N83W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.16 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...AND
BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 3N TO PANAMA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 80W...
AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LINE FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N TO 10N78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS
PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
IN PUNTA CANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS NEAR CUBA.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH A TROUGH THAT APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST...APPEARS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA AND JAMAICA RIDGE. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 32N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 90W...
INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 22N46W TO 13N51W...AND 9N54W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 32N32W TO 29N40W 27N44W. A
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N44W TO 24N47W AND 20N49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N34W 28N41W 22N43W
17N49W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 29N67W 27N75W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N84W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 31N28W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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