[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM 29N92W TO 26N97W PRODUCING GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF REACHING THE SW ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN BY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS
EXTENDING TO THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
4N34W TO 7N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-13N
BETWEEN 15W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 MB LOW DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW GULF CENTERED NEAR 28N96W.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO SE TEXAS NEAR 31N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY N OF 28N...W OF 92W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS S OF THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION
AND PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NEAR 19N78W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS N OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 13N. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. WITH THIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 59W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO
25N76W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
FROM 30N49W TO 24N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
WITHIN 75 NM FROM THIS TROUGH. TO THE E...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 28N38W KEEPING THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 43W
CONVECTION FREE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N48W TO 7N50W
ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 45W-
51W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 49W WILL ALSO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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