[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. THE
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN EXITING ESE INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 7N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
5N40W TO 8N46W. THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AT 8N49W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 19W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-14N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 0900 UTC... A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF GALVESTON
TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 93W-
95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS OVER N TEXAS MOVING S TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. THE NE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N WHERE FAIR
SKIES ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 85W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WELL AS A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W TO 26N70W TO THE
N BAHAMAS AT 26N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N50W
TO 25N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE TROUGH. A LARGE 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
28N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 46W-49W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E MOSTLY VOID OF
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ALSO MOVE E WITH
CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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