[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN EXITING ESE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA BY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS
AND THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 10N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 7N30W TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AT 8N48W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
7N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 15W-
48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 29N95W TO 22N96W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER N TEXAS MOVING S TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THE NE GULF HAS
SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINS OVER
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 22N WHERE FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING
IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. THERE ARE NO CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. EXPECT A STRONG COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE
WINDS N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
ISLAND AS WELL AS A TONGUE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL
WATERS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS
AT 26N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N53W TO
25N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
TROUGH. A LARGE 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N35W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 46W-49W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ALSO MOVE E WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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