[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM SW
LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION
INTO A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND TO GENERATE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 7N22W 5N29W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N38W TO 6N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-11N EAST OF 30W. ISOLATED ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. WEST OF THE
ITCZ...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N49W TO 5N50W WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED ON
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO COVER GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
GULF...THUS PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE
BASE OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. STARTS TO DIP IN THE NW BASIN AND SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W SW TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
BETWEEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE ALONG WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE BASIN BY E-SE WIND FLOW
ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER GREAT PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA AS WELL AS COASTAL WATERS N OF 28N. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTING NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 13N...MAINLY
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W. AN UPPER-
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WHILE THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 13N W OF 78W.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN WHILE E-SE WINDS OF 5-15 KT DOMINATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS BY TUESDAY MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THIS REGION.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN SOME REGIONS OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE REGION IS FORECAST TO FAVOR FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA...WHICH STARTS
TO DISSIPATE ALONG 30N55W SW TO 27N64W 26N73W. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N45W TO 24N57W.
MODERATE MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 43W-50W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 18N BEING ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N38W. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC
TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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