[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
7N30W TO 7N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND
50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W
AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS AT 25N80W TO
23N85W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N93W TO S
MEXICO AT 18N94W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. 15 TO 25 KT N TO NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10
TO 15 KT E TO NE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL AND BOTH THE STATIONARY
AND COLD FRONTS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM SW OF JAMAICA AT
18N81W TO 13N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER N
VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W S OF 13N.
THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT SURFACE
TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM E OF JAMAICA.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
WINWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE W AND WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ISLAND TODAY AND SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N69W TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AT 25N81W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N58W TO 26N62W
MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A LARGE AND STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N35W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N47W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E VOID OF CONVECTION. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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