[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
6N30W TO 8N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N92W TO S MEXICO AT 18N94W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXCEPT OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N WHERE FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED. 25
KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE S
OF THE FRONT. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30'S IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHILE IN THE 60'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF.
THUS THERE ARE NO CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM SW OF JAMAICA AT
18N79W TO N COSTA RICA AT 11N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER N VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 20-
25 KT NE WINDS ARE W OF THE TROUGH. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ISLAND SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO S FLORIDA AT
26N80W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N60W TO 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 28N34W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N47W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 43W-47W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E MOSTLY
VOID OF CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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