[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N35W TO 9N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 25W-35W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
37W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED ON
THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON THE NE CONUS EXTENDS
SW INTO THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING E-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF
10-15 KT EAST OF 93W. IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N95W TO 21N96W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR JAMAICA COVERS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 21N W OF 80W. A
TONGUE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO
JAMAICA AS WELL AS A WESTWARD MOVING BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN-CENTRAL BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOIST AIRMASS
ALONG AN UPPER-TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BY TUESDAY MORNING
ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THIS REGION.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WELL AS A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC FROM 30N67W SW TO
26N76W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME TROUGH
ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N55W TO 26N60W. MODERATE
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 18N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N36W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ATLC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
DISSIPATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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