[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE W GULF AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NE MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING GALE FORCE WINDS OF
35 KT OVER THE FAR SW GULF. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT ARE SUBSIDING TO 9 TO
14 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO 8N
BETWEEN 12W AND 17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO N
OF A LINE FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO NAPLES FLORIDA SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF NEAR 27N82W TO 25N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A
STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES THROUGH 23N90W TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 18N94W. DENSE CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT S OF 28N DUE
TO THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 85W. A SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER NE
MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COMBINE TO
GIVE THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO W CUBA. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FAR SW GULF REACHING GALE FORCE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W.
THIS RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE
INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE SW TIP OF HAITI TO 17N74W GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N81W TO 13N84W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 77W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N
E OF 70W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DISSIPATE AND THE W
CARIBBEAN TROUGH MOVES W WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF HAITI
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
HAITI THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE N GULF AND E CONUS
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N77W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
22N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50
NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 23N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N52W TO 26N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM OF WITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N37W AND IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 55W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE
TO NEAR 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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