[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN
THE W GULF AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NE MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING GALE FORCE WINDS OF
35 KT OVER THE SW GULF. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 10 FT.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N30W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 15W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND EXTENDS TO THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD
FRONT FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THEN ENTERING THE
GULF NEAR 26N81W TO 23N88W...AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
23N88W TO 19N94W. NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AT AROUND 15-20 KT WHILE A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 5-
10 KT PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S
OF 23N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHILE THE CURRENT
STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N81W. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLANTIC. WITH THIS...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF
81W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 18N79W TO 14N82W ENHANCING
CONVECTION SW OF JAMAICA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 78W-83W. TO THE
E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 28N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE NW TIP OF HAITI
NEAR 20N73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DISSIPATE
WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN TROUGH MOVES W WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF HAITI WITH NO
CONVECTION. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT
THIS TROUGH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HAITI THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE N GULF AND E CONUS EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A
997 MB LOW NEAR 43N62W TO 27N80W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO
THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC NEAR
28N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE NW TIP OF HAITI NEAR
20N73W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 30N52W TO 25N58W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N36W PROVIDING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E
OF 52W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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