[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT OVER THE FAR SW GULF. WINDS WILL BE
BELOW GALE FORCE BY MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS ARE SUBSIDING TO 9 TO 13
FT THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 19W-33W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 11W-16W INCLUDING THE
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 34W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO N
OF A LINE FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN
TITUSVILLE AND SARASOTA ALONG 25N87W TO 22N91W WHERE IT IS
BACKING AS A WARM FRONT ALONG 21N93W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO TO
COMALCALCO MEXICO. DENSE CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT S OF 28N DUE
TO THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...DRY
AIR ALOFT IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER N TEXAS. AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COMBINE TO GIVE THE GULF SW
FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-82W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS
MORNING. FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO W BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY FRI NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF REACHING GALE FORCE
THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N81W COVERS
THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC
ACROSS E CUBA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NW VENEZUELA
INCLUDING THE E TIP HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
22N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE SW TIP OF HAITI
TO 17N75W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-75W.
A SECOND STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N81W TO OFF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 11N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
10N74W THROUGH A SMALL 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N77W ALONG 11N81W TO
ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-81W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY WHILE THE SECOND SOUTHERN SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS W THROUGH
SAT MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
22N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE SW TIP OF HAITI
TO 17N75W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS
CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N77W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
TITUSVILLE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS E CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC BEYOND 32N62W. A NARROW
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N57W
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS
NEAR 32N54W TO 23N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES
THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N53W TO 25N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 56W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N38W. THE FAR W ATLC FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 27N/28N BY
LATE SAT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING N OF
THE BAHAMAS AND INTO NE FLORIDA BY SUN. THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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