[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
LATER MIDDAY FRI. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KT OVER THE FAR SW GULF. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY MIDDAY.
SEAS HAVE REACHED TO 20 FT AND WILL SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 TO 13 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 12N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N25W TO 6N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N27W TO 9N34W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 18W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO N
OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA
BEACH AND TAMPA ALONG 25N90W THEN S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. DENSE CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT S OF 28N DUE
TO THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...DRY
AIR ALOFT IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE GULF IN THE FRONTS WAKE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH OVER N TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
COMBINE TO GIVE THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS ARE S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
80W-83W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI NIGHT. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF REACHING GALE FORCE THROUGH MIDDAY FRI.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N81W COVERS
THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT N OF 17N W OF 74W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
NW VENEZUELA INCLUDING THE E TIP HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N80W TO OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA
NEAR 10N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG 11N79W TO ACROSS
COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS W THROUGH SAT MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND EXTREME WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS CLEAR
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BY MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N78W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC BEYOND 32N67W.
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
32N60W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N56W TO
24N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N71W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N54W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-24N
BETWEEN 53W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
28N34W. THE FAR W ATLC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO JUPITER
FLORIDA FRI BEFORE STALLING ALONG 27N/28N BY LATE SAT. THE W
ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER OVERNIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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