[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
GENERATE 35 KT OR GREATER FROM 22N-25N W OF 96W GRADUALLY
EXTENDING S TO OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE BUILD FROM 12 FT TO A MAXIMUM OF 20 FT
OVER THAT TIME FRAME. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND OVER AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 9N14W TO 5N20W TO 5N29W TO
2N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 18W-
34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N81W. DUE TO THIS FEATURE...THE GULF CONTINUES
WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM
28N83W NEAR LEESBURG FLORIDA TO 19N93W NEAR TABASCO MEXICO. 20-
25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS THE ADJACENT WATERS OF EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE
BASIN EXTENDING FROM BONITA SPRINGS FLORIDA TO COATZACOALCOS
MEXICO BY FRIDAY THEN BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N81W
KEEPS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN W OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
24N67W TO 18N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 17N80W TO 10N80W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE
AND THE SUPPORT OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N W OF 80W AFFECTING
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO IT. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 31N63W AND
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WAS
ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 41N54W TO 24N67W AND A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM THAT POINT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED CONVECTION
COULD BE EXPECTED WITHIN 10 NM FROM THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE
E...A STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 30N37W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS N OF 22N
E OF 50W. DIFFLUENT FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED LIGHT
CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 44W-48W AND 24W-29W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE W ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
AS THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA EXTENDING
FROM 37N70W TO JUPITER FLORIDA BY FRIDAY THEN BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND W ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net