[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 TO 15 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 95W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 29N83W TO
26N91W TO 18N94W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
GUINEA 10N14W...TO 5N20W 5N29W 2N36W AND 1N42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO
8N BETWEEN 17W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N85W. MOISTURE
AT DIFFERENT LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N92W
25N86W 26N81W...COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH 32N80W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR
29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...CURVING TO
25N92W...TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 18N97W...AND
THEN IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FRONT IS
DENSE AND SHALLOW WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 29N81W 24N90W 19N91W. POSSIBLE
IN THE MULTILAYERED MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF 19N94W 22N94W 25N87W 27N83W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE COAST
AND 100W...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN 12 HOURS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...
KGVX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL HAS BEEN HAVING VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2
MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KHQI...KVBS...KGBK...KVQT WITH A
VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...
KATP...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...KDLP...AND
KMIS WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND
ALABAMA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N61W AND 21N62W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N64W 23N70W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF JAMAICA...TO 18N79W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
31N63W 28N67W 26N70W...TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 30N61W 28N62W 26N64W
24N67W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN
54W AND 58W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 64W WESTWARD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 17N85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 64W EASTWARD. THE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH...THAT EXTENDS FROM A 19N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 13N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO 8N60W IN
NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 59W AND
63W... COVERING COASTAL AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF GUYANA...
VENEZUELA...AND TRINIDAD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 1.51 IN TRINIDAD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 10N TO 16N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND
82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND THE
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W...
ACROSS THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER...BEYOND 9N84W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
9N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N61W AND 21N62W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N64W 23N70W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF JAMAICA...TO 18N79W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 30 NM
TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W
30N61W 28N62W 26N64W 24N67W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO
WESTERN JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA 17N85W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY MOVES TO
JAMAICA BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
REMAIN ON TOP OF CUBA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT BROAD NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. THIS
IS RELATED TO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BROAD
INVERTED TROUGH.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 27N25W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 27N25W TO 27N40W AND 26N49W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N52W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 19N52W TO 13N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO 8N60W IN
NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 56W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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