[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS TIGHTENED
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE 35 KT OR GREATER FROM 22N-25N
W OF 96W GRADUALLY EXTENDING S TO OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE
THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BE BUILD FROM 13 FT TO A MAX OF
17 FT OVER THAT TIME FRAME. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W 3N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N51W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N48W
TO 10N47W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
43W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-8N BETWEEN 13W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N85W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO NEW ENGLAND NARROWING OVER TEXAS AND
MEXICO AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF AT 13/0900 UTC
ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND CEDAR KEY ALONG 25N93W
THEN S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS. ABUNDANT
LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING IN OVER THE GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A A 1045 MB
HIGH OVER WYOMING. THE SE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI NIGHT. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE FAR W GULF WILL REACH GALE FORCE LATE THU THROUGH
EARLY FRI. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N84W COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT N OF 16N W OF 80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S
OVER E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA E OF 70W
INCLUDING THE E TIP HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN AT 13/0900 UTC OVER
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO 18N79W GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 17N79W TO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 11N79W TO ACROSS
COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS W THROUGH FRI MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO 18N79W IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF W HAITI. THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS CLEAR
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY LESSENING THE
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN COVERS
THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N63W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
NEAR PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/0900 UTC
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W TO 25N67W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N71W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 20N53W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN
51W-58W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 31N42W. THE W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM
32N72W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI BEFORE STALLING ALONG ROUGHLY
27N BY LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net