[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS
MORNING NEAR 13/1200 UTC THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO GENERATE 35 KT OR GREATER STARTING FRI MORNING FROM 22N-25N W
OF 95W GRADUALLY EXTENDING S TO OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE
THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BE BUILD FROM 13 FT TO A MAX OF
17 FT OVER THAT TIME FRAME. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N20W 2N28W TO 2N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 47W FROM 11N-16N WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 43W-49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 16W-
29W AND N OF ITCZ FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N85W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NORTH CAROLINA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO NEW ENGLAND NARROWING OVER TEXAS AND
MEXICO AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF AT 13/0300 UTC
ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 26N94W THEN S TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. ABUNDANT LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE
SE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. FRONT
WILL REACH FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA THROUGH 22N94W TO
COATZACOALCOS MEXICO THU NIGHT AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST S OF 24N TO VERACRUZ LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT N OF 15N W OF 80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S
OVER E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA E OF 70W
INCLUDING THE E TIP HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E TIP OF
CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO 18N80W GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 16N79W TO OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N82W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR
10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SHIFT E AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS W THROUGH SAT MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E TIP OF
CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO 18N80W IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF W HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY LESSEN THE
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN COVERS
THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N66W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
NEAR PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
OVER BERMUDA ALONG 27N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N71W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E TIP OF
CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 18N55W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 51W-57W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 30N49W TO 26N54W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 32N44W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF NE FLORIDA THU NIGHT REACHING FROM 32N76W TO STUART
FLORIDA BY FRI AND FROM 32N69W TO PORT EVERGLADES BY SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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