[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W 7N40W TO 7N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-23W AND FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
AND THE NE CONUS...THUS SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
45N65W...A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 39N44W AND A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT E OF 90W AND E-SE
WIND FLOW IN THE SAME RANGE W OF 90W. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH
ALONG REMNANT SHALLOW MOISTURE LINKED TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE
SW N ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND EASTERN SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN FROM LOUISIANA
TO NE MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTEND SW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ON THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO CUBA
NEAR 22N79W TO 21N80W AND THEN ALONG 18N82W TO HONDURAS NEAR
15N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ON THE CENTRAL BASIN...ABUNDANT LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUEL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 20N73W TO
11N73W. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES
SIMILAR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 13N E OF
81W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN BASIN
RANGING FROM 5-10 KT EAST OF THE COLD FRONT W OF
78W...INCREASING TO 15 KT WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TRADES
OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY
FRONT BY WED MORNING OVER EASTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AND
IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU
MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING CENTRAL
AMERICA THU AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT
WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AS WELL AS ADJACENT SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD TO CENTRAL
AMERICA THU AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS...THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC...EXTENDING SW
TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF 29N AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1012 MB LOW ALONG 29N79W TO NORTHERN
CUBA NEAR 22N79W SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN
HONDURAS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF
23N W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 40W-
48W. THE LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF 30N
DURING TUESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH THU MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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