[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 8N30W TO 6N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
6N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN
10W AND 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 12N
BETWEEN 29W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W
ACROSS W CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM NW OF THE
FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE BASIN WITH A SHORTWAVE
CENTERED NEAR 27N84W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE GULF. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR COVER THE GULF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. A 1017 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N93W IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO
10 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...WITH NW WINDS UP TO 15 KT
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY EXIT THE BASIN. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE ENTIRE BASIN FAIR AND DRY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM CUBA NEAR
23N82W TO 18N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 75W. TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
11N75W WHICH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SSMI TPW SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

HISPANIOLA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF N FLORIDA NEAR 30N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE
LOW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N75W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 24N
W OF 76W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N AND 24N BETWEEN
64W AND 78W. A LARGE 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 20N46W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N TO 24N
BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W TO INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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