[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100505
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 7N30W TO 6N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
6N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN
15W AND 25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO
11N BETWEEN 29W AND 39W...AND FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W
ACROSS W CUBA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
NW OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N95W IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KT W OF 85W. E OF 85W...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY EXIT THE BASIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA AT 23N82W TO 19N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS COMBINING WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND
75W. ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND
63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT
COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WEAK STEERING FLOW IS PRODUCING VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. E TRADE WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT COVER THE E CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW BASIN NEAR THE COLD FRONT.

HISPANIOLA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR
30N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 25N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 31N73W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
FLORIDA N OF 24N W OF 76W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN
21N AND 24N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N31W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 225 NM OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W TO
INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE
UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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