[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N13W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 4N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 4N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 15W-
34W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 51W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N87W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE SE GULF E OF
88W...W CUBA...AND THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN ADDITION... LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER MOST
OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...
AND W ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 20N75W TO
11N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 71W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 69W-
75W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 69W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF
10N MOSTLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BROAD
RIDGING IS PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 11N-20N
BETWEEN 76W-90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO REACH S OF CENTRAL CUBA AT 20N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY HISPANIOLA HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 71W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO
SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR
30N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 25N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 31N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF
26N W OF 75W. A LARGE 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N40W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 20N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-
23N BETWEEN 40W-45W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W TO INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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