[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N30W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-12N EAST OF 25W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
ALONG NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER
TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011
MB LOW AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 26N80W...SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N82W...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT WIND PATTERN ALOFT GENERATED BY A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE REGION
HINDERS DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AND THE REMAINDER BASIN. NORTHERLY WIND OF 15-20 KT
DOMINATE OVER THE GULF...INCREASING TO 25 KT OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE COLD FRONT IN THE SE BASIN WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT WHILE A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN FROM
LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

HAZY CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN THE NW BASIN INCLUDING CUBA WHERE A
TONGUE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR IS OBSERVED. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS REGION
LATER DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 11N. ABUNDANT LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH
ALONG A MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND PATTERN SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N73W TO
9N72W. A SHORT-WAVE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORT VARIABLE WINDS OF 5
KT TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE EASTERN BASIN. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN ISLAND.

HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG A MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS TO
INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WESTWARD TO EASTERN CUBA WHERE IT DISSIPATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A
PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC...EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF 30N...TRANSITIONING TO A
WARM FRONT FROM 30N76W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 28N79W WHERE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 26N80W...ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 75W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FARTHER EAST N OF 21N BETWEEN 57W-63W.
THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY
A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ENHANCES SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 40W-
44W. THE LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF 30N
DURING TUESDAY AND THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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