[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 5N30W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN
11W AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 12N
BETWEEN 27W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH
AN AXIS ALONG 90W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1010 MB SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE SW FL COAST NEAR 26N82W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SE GULF TO 22N90W AND THEN OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO THE MEXICO COAST AT 19N92W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 150 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM S
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
GULF COAST OF ALABAMA...MS...AND THE FL PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NORTH
OF THE FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE S TO SW BETWEEN 10
AND 20 KT. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TX COAST NEAR
28N97W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N93W. DRY AIR IN THE W GULF
IS PREVENTING ANY CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

5 TO 10 KT WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN. 10 TO 15 KT
TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF HAITI NEAR 19N75W TO 11N74W.
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN
70W AND 75W. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS DOMINATES THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 70W INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST IN A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

DEEP MOISTURE AND A NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WARM FRONT IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 31N69W TO 30N75W TO
FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT. A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THIS DISTURBANCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 26N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 51W AND
59W. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 22N42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM OF THIS LOW. A 1029 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 35N28W WHICH IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 55W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A
LOW WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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