[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 6N35W TO 6N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN
10W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 15N
BETWEEN 29W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W TO A 1010
MB SURFACE LOW IN THE E GULF NEAR 25W85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 22N91W AND THEN
SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 18N93W. NW TO NE WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 200 NM N OF
THE FRONT AND WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 87W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 87W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
TROUGH WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SE WITH SHOWERS OVER THE SE
GULF...FL...YUCATAN...AND W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

5 TO 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE W CARIBBEAN. 10 TO 15 KT
TRADE WINDS COVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM HAITI NEAR 20N73W TO 12N71N. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS TROUGH. A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN A WESTERN
ATLANTIC UPPER LOW NEAR 24N66W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND AND
AN UPPER LOW MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM
31N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXTEND FROM THE FRONT UP TO 250 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 75W
INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS AND NE FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 75W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 22N42W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO
24N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC E OF 60W AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
36N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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