[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 09N19W TO 08N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
08N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N25W 08N35W TO 07N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 29W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE SE
CONUS...SUPPORTING A STATIONARY 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
29N87W. SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 87W IN THE
RANGE OF 5-15 KT WHILE 10-15 KT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS E OF
87W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN FROM LOUISIANA TO
NE MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EXTENDING SW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT ON THE SW ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS TO CUBA AND THE
W CARIBBEAN FROM 23N80W TO 16N86W. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUEL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 71W-77W NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
20N75W TO 12N75W. TO THE S OF THIS ACTIVITY...THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 12N AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF
COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. NORTHERLY
FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN BASIN RANGING FROM 10-15 KT W OF
77W WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE TO THE E OF 77W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MOVE E ACROSS CUBA WHILE DISSIPATING. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL AMERICA BY THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AFFECTING HISPANIOLA. THERE IS ALSO A
SURFACE TROUGH W OF THE ISLAND ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE SW N ATLC...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED AS
A COLD FRONT N OF 32N...AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N69W TO
32N76W...CONNECTING TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N79N...TO 23N80W.
THE FRONT CONTINUES S ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ENDING IN HONDURAS.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PAIRED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION
S OF 32N BETWEEN 69W-81W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
19N46W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 45W-49W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES NEAR
33N40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE LOW OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING NE ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WHILE
DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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