[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 09N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 07N29W TO 09N39W TO 07N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-16N BETWEEN 20W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB LOW CONTINUES OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N96N.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N. 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SECONDARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF TO 19N96W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED
TO THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 16N95W IS KEEPING THE WESTERN GULF UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SOUTH FLORIDA ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPENDS INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN KEEPING THE AREA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HAITI NEAR
18N72W REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH LOCATED FROM
17N67W TO 14N69W. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING THIS
TROUGH AND ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 64W-72W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW
PORTION. SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WHOLE ISLAND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 995 MB LOW
LOCATED NEAR 43N69W TO THE COAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS 85 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
N OF 29N BETWEEN 53W-81W. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N67W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 28N72W. TO THE SE OF THIS
FEATURE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 29N BETWEEN 62W-
71W DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 71W. A BROAD 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. A COLD FRONT IS
FROM 31N37W TO 39N09W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM
FROM THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE SUPPORTING THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC N OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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