[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 8N17W 8N29W 8N37W AND 5N47W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN
39W AND 42W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN
18W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
10N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N39W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N41W AND 10N44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN
23W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING IN THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.A....INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N74W...TO 29N75W...AND 26N75W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND TO 25N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 25N94W...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W...AND
THEN CURVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICO. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N68W 26N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD
FROM 90W EASTWARD...FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD...AND
FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 92W WESTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.50 IN
BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MEXICO 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N102W...TO 19N97W IN MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.00 IN
VERACRUZ IN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...COVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS AND LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N65W...CUTTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...TO 14N70W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS TO
THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 17N73W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF HAITI. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 80W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N68W 17N65W 19N64W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 70W WESTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.90 IN
TRINIDAD...0.23 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.16 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
TO LAND BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 86W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N73W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW ENCOMPASSES HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM 70W WESTWARD. ONLY THAT PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 70W IS NOT BEING AFFECTED BY THE COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 17N73W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE WHOLE FEATURE OPENING
INTO A TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL END UP BEING MORE DIRECTLY ON
TOP OF PUERTO RICO. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH HISPANIOLA BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
17N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE WHOLE FEATURE
OPENING INTO A TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL END UP BEING DIRECTLY ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AROUND 36
HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER DISSIPATES AFTER 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA UNTIL THE END OF THE
48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N32W TO
25N36W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 25N36W TO 22N39W...
EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO THE 19N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
AND TROUGH FEATURE THAT IS REFERENCED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/
ITCZ SECTION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 31N35W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...
THAT IS NEAR 38N35W...THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N53W AND 20N60W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...NOT COUNTING THE 33N30W
TO 31N35W COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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