[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 11N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 09N21W TO 07N38W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 17W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB LOW CONTINUES OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N96N.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N84W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE
COASTLINE AFFECTION THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 29N. 20 KT NORTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE 5-10 KT VARIABLE
WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SECONDARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF TO 20N97W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N94W IS KEEPING THE WESTERN
GULF UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SOUTH FLORIDA
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPENDS TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN KEEPING THE AREA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W. AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO...ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 64W-72W. 10-20
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE NW PORTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WHOLE ISLAND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH N OF
30N BETWEEN 53W-81W. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO
THE LOW CENTER TO 25N74W. TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-71W DUE TO UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG 72W. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N41W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 31N38W TO
36N36W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE WEST
ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net