[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 10N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 09N31W TO 06N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 04N-14N
BETWEEN 18W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERS
THE BASIN AND EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN
EXTENDING NE FROM A 1017 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N97W. THIS
BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT FROM 28N96W TO A 1020 MB
LOW OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 135 NM FROM THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM
A 1023 MB HIGH OVER SE CONUS NEAR 30N83W. EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN AT AROUND 10-15 KT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO TRANSITION INTO A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND
STALL S OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
IS COVERED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF
HAITI NEAR 16N74W ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-74W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N70W TO 20N72W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 18N65W TO 12N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W-70W. TO THE S...THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INTO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 76W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE ANCHORED S OF HAITI IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ADJACENT
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 27N
SUPPORTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N70W. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N64W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A STATIONARY FRONT
IS FROM 30N64W TO 34N46W WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT
FROM 34N46W AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM FROM THE
BOUNDARIES. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 32W-37W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N47W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
SURFACE LOW LOCATED N OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
W WHILE DISSIPATING. THE TROUGH ALONG THIS LOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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