[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 07N35W TO 06N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 04N-14N
BETWEEN 18W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 3N-
6N BETWEEN 10W-12.5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
13W-22W...FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
28W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA TO A WEAK 1016
MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N97W WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING S INTO NE
MEXICO. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
A DAY OR TWO WHILE DEEPENING. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
A HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE GULF ON FRI...PARTICULARLY N OF 26N.
CURRENTLY...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...MAINLY NW OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS. THE LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SE TO A
POSITION NEAR 25N93W BY SAT MORNING THEN WILL TRACK ENE ON SUN
CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SE OF THE AREA LATE SUN WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRI.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERS THE BASIN
EXTENDING A RIDGE NE ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER
DATA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRES OVER N FLORIDA AND A LOW PRES OVER
THE SW ATLC. AS THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRES
OVER THE SW ATLC. THE ATLC HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE
FAR NE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALSO DOMINATES WESTERN CUBA...THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA UNDER THE NE WIND
FLOW. A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS HISPANIOLA THROUGH AT
LEAST FRI. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.

HISPANIOLA...

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND ON FRI. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO MAINTAIN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 26N70W IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 62W
AND 68W. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE NNW. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL
LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SCATTEROMETER
PASS CLEARLY SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND ALSO FRESH TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS WITHIN AROUND 210 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N
OF AREA NEAR 39N46W. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL N ATLC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ALOFT...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC...INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOTED SE OF A LINE FROM 30N70W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N77W TO ABOUT 56W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 27N70W AND SUPPORTS THE LOW PRES
NEAR 26N70W. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. EAST OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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