[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 10N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 07N23W TO 07N35W TO 07N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 05N-
08N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
COVERS THE BASIN AND EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N74W
INTO THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N98W INTO THE NW GULF FROM
27N97W TO 29N95W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 90W-97W. EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AT
AROUND 10-15 KT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NW
GULF WHERE IT WILL STALL LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND STALL S OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
IS COVERED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF
HAITI NEAR 17N73W ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-
75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 22N68W TO 13N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 66W-69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA ENHANCING
CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE ANCHORED S OF HAITI IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS AND AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PREVAILS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 28N
SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N73W TO 31N62W.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
22N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N66W TO 19N68W AND
THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
21N-30N BETWEEN 60W-68W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 31W-39W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N52W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A TROUGH AND
MOVE W ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED N OF EASTERN
HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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