[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N34W 8N50W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 20W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERS THE
GULF TO OVER THE S-SE CONUS...PORTION OF THE FAR W ATLC AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC TO A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N73W
INTO THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF VANCE ARE STREAMING NE TO
CONVERGE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM
29N95W SW TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N98W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WEST OF 86W. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN
ARE FROM THE SE IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL
THURSDAY MORNING. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT N OF THE BASIN IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM A STATIONARY FRONT TO A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND STALLING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
SATURDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WHILE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY AN ELONGATED
UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF HAITI. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W WHERE IT
STARTS DISSIPATING TO 13N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
23N60W SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 10N BETWEEN 64W-
72W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 13N W OF
80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BEING
SUPPORTED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY
AIR. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY MORNING
LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER N
OF THE AREA IN THE SW ATLC.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ANCHORED SOUTH OF
HAITI ALONG WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND COUPLED WITH THE LOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W
ATLC WHILE THE ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO NEAR 32N AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N57W
ALONG 23N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING SW
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 280 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE W AS A TROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS BY THU. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE N ON
THU AND BE N OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL W/ATLC THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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