[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N38W 10N55W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF SW AFRICA FROM SIERRA LEONE E TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF TO OVER THE SE CONUS...W ATLC
AND CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO 1027 MB HIGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST INTO THE GULF ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NW AROUND THE
SURFACE RIDGE GIVING THE GULF CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE S TEXAS
COAST THU AND THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA
BAY TO THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 25N96W THEN S TO TAMPICO MEXICO
BY FRI. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HAITI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR
18N68W SW TO 14N75W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 68W-75W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN 65W-73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W ALONG 10N81W ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 9N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA S OF 14N. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
WASH OUT COMPLETELY TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRI BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC/E CARIBBEAN
AND ANCHORED OVER HAITI IS GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HAITI. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD GIVE PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING MAINLY THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W
ATLC W OF 77W. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER HAITI ALONG 26N71W TO BEYOND 32N67W AND
IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION FROM A COLD FRONT NEAR 31N55W ALONG 27N63W 21N65W TO THE
MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W WHERE IT DISSIPATES IN THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM 25N58W ALONG 21N63W TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N65W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 58W-62W AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 380 NM SW OF THE AZORES.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE W AS A TROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW
FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BY THU. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE N ON THU AND BE N OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI. THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL W/ATLC THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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