[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N18W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N25W TO 07N38W TO 08N46W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
07N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N93W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1028 MB HIGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N76W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN
PROVIDING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. DRY AIR
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NW BASIN THIS EVENING ENHANCING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY FRIDAY
AND EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE SW
GULF EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...AN ELONGATED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED FROM 13N75W TO 19N65W THEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 14N BETWEEN
66W-74W...AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FROM
18N68W TO 19N67W THEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM FROM THE BOUNDARY. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KT
FOR MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION
TO A SURFACE TROUGH SOMETIME TODAY. LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO LA MONA PASSAGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS E HISPANIOLA AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N65W TO 31N53W AND CONTINUES N INTO
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO 19N67W TO 26N62W.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 125 NM NW
FROM THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...SURFACE RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 26W-
41W. EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH TODAY WHICH WILL SHIFT W-NW DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SW ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net