[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N17W TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N19W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N28W TO 08N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 06N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N
BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N93W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1028 MB HIGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N76W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN
PROVIDING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. DRY AIR
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NW BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE SW
GULF EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...AN ELONGATED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED FROM 13N75W TO 18N65W THEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN
58W-67W...AFFECTING EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FROM 17N69W TO 19N69W THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-70W AFFECTING EASTERN HISPANIOLA. DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT ARE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN
HISPANIOLA.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS E HISPANIOLA AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N53W TO 18N66W
THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 170 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM 25N64W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N69W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN
135 NM FROM THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...SURFACE RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY EARLY WED
WHICH WILL SHIFT W-NW DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NE OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SW ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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