[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
11N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N24W TO 8N40W...IT THEN RESUMES WEST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 8N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
6N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 34W-
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...THUS
SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N77W THAT IS PROVIDING EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT.
OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE GULF TO SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING
THE NW BASIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NW GULF BY THU MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND EXTEND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
IN THE GULF COVERS THE NW GULF WHILE AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
PUERTO RICO SW TO 14N74W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 63W-70W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN N OF
13N BETWEEN 69W-75W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
WIND SHEAR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING FRONT ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT A
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO SW TO 14N74W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N53W
SW TO 23N60W TO 15N70W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING TO 14N74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 280 NM WEST OF THE FRONT
AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF IT. ON THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N39W TO 4N43W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE
WEST AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT W-NW DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THURSDAY MORNING. A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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