[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC AT 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
11N18W TO 5N25W TO 8N39W. THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 9N43W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 19W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 15W-22W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 35W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N82W PRODUCING 15
KT E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDUAL
SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO BE JUST INLAND OF THE TEXAS COAST WITH
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONTINUED MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE PUERTO RICO AT 18N66W TO
16N70W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 14N75W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT E OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM IF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 83W-85W. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 77W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...AND LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT IS E OF HISPANIOLA WITH CONVECTION
ALONG THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N54W TO
27N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO NE PUERTO RICO AT
18N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
20N-29N BETWEEN 55W-70W. RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 36N34W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 42W-
47W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO FORM
E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N68W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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