[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC AT 12N17W AND CONTINUES TO 06N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N30W TO 06N34W...THEN RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR 08N41W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 07N58W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N...W OF 17W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-13N BETWEEN 15W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CONUS NEAR 32N82W AND
EXTENDING TO THE GULF PRODUCING 10 TO 15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF 24N AND W OF 92W...WHERE ISOLATED
LIGHT CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS. SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF BY MID-WEEK ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 21N65W ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA AT 19N70W AND INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN AT 15N83W. NE SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG
THE NICARAGUA COAST FROM 15N84W TO 12N84W. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS S OF
15N...W OF 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA
EXTENDING FROM 18N69W TO 16N71W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT SE WATERS FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 63W-68W PRODUCT OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A TROUGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC TO DIG S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TO A SHEAR LINE.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE ISLAND WHILE DISSIPATING TO A SHEAR LINE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N56W TO
20N67W. N TO NW SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NW OF THE FRONT WHILE 15-20 KT E-SE FLOW PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE
FRONT. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N52W TO 24N56W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N35W.
THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 50W N OF 26N. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR
21N47W ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 41W-46W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 14N35W TO 06N37W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-21N BETWEEN 31W-39W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO 30N55W TO 20N65W
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


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