[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EDT SUN NOV 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
ALONG 70W FROM VENEZUELA TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
45 NM OF THE WAVE N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W TO 9N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
8N24W 9N30W 7N38W 6N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COVERS THE TROPICS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 17W-27W...FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 27W-40W...AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 7N-9N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER
TEXAS COVERING THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC BUT
REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THE MAIN
PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE GULF WITH THE TAIL END
REMAINING IN THE SW GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
ALONG 20N95W TO 22N97W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST
OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH
OVER S INDIANA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR NW GULF WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUE WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHIFTING FROM W
TO E AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W GULF
WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 73W SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W S
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 18N83W TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PRECEDES
THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS ACROSS NW HAITI AND THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 20N73W OVER THE W TIP OF JAMAICA TO
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER N COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS N THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S AND EXTENDS FROM 14N82W ALONG
11N82W TO 9N81W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 11N75W TO 12N79W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
20N63W THROUGH THE ANGUILLA PASSAGE TO 15N65W GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E
HONDURAS TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MID WEEK.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING
STRONG NW SURFACE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE BASIN ON WED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS N
PORTION OF HAITI ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE COLD
FRONT OVER E CUBA WILL MOVE TO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED AS THE SAME COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N69W
THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PRECEDES THE ABOVE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
32N63W ALONG 24N68W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NW HAITI AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 24N64W TO BEYOND 32N54W
ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 180/210 NM E OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 19N39W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 32W-45W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH BOUT 320 NM SW OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TONIGHT THEN FROM 32N58W 23N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH
TUE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM OVER THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE
FRONT MON THROUGH WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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