[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN NOV 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N66W TO 20N74W. A SECOND
COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N69W TO 22N77W. GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST-TO-
WEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 18 FEET TO 22 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA THAT ALSO HAS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE NORTH...AND IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
22N59W 19N62W 15N64W. IT REPRESENTS WHAT WAS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NOW-CURRENT 67W/68W TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W
AND 65W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N19W TO 8N30W AND 6N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W
AND 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO
10N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N24W 5N26W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO
THE NORTHWEST OF 10N24W 8N27W 7N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING IN THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...SWEEPING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...INTO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN HALF OF CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
GUATEMALA...AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 24N70W AND
20N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES ALONG 20N75W 19N80W...INTO
EASTERN HONDURAS. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W
23N75W 20N86W...CURVING TO 22N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N68W 21N72W
17N77W...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60
NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N64W 21N72W...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...
JAMAICA...AND HAITI...TO WESTERN JAMAICA...AND 10N83W ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...TO
COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 21N98W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT...KMZG...KBBF...KGVX...KXIH...KVAF...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...
KGRY...KATP...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

COMPARATIVELY WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COMES FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 60W/61W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.40 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.35 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.18 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND
83W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA AT THIS
TIME.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA...AND EVEN PASSING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE 20N75W-19N80W-EASTERN HONDURAS.
STATIONARY FRONT. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BARAHONA TO PUNTA CANA.
LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED ALSO IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE...THEN
BECOMING AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA WITH A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF SO. NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN 18N38W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 12N44W AND 11N50W. A SECOND
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 18N38W CENTER TO 32N41W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND
54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 32W AND 44W...AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND
48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION OF THE ITCZ.

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE 1032 MB HIGH CENTER TO 32N43W 30N48W AND
24N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...NOT COUNTING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
22N59W 19N62W 15N64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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