[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN NOV 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAKENING FIRST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO 21N75W. A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N72W TO 23N80W. GALE-FORCE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 24
FEET...HIGHEST NEAR 31N76W....TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF
THE SECOND FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W
AND 70W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N58W 17N61W 15N62W. IT REPRESENTS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 67W/68W TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 11N TO
18N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM 5N TO 16N...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
22N71W...TO JAMAICA...TO 10N84W IN COSTA RICA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W TO 7N20W
8N30W 8N41W AND 5N53W IN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 41W AND
47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N40W 7N41W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THIS TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N74W IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...SWEEPING ACROSS FLORIDA TO
NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE
WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N68W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FIRST
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO
19N80W AND TO EASTERN HONDURAS. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS WITHIN
200 NM TO 300 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST COLD
FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 25N68W 21N72W 15N85W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N71W...TO JAMAICA...TO 10N84W IN COSTA
RICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
LOUISIANA...TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO EAST CENTRAL
COASTAL MEXICO...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT...KMZG...KIPN...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN THE KEY WEST FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

COMPARATIVELY WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.40 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.35 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.18 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND
83W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 8N
BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...ALONG THE PANAMA COAST FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 78W AND 79W...AND IN NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA AT THIS
TIME.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT MOST OF THE OBSERVING SITES
THAT ARE AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SANTIAGO WAS REPORTING
EARLIER RAINSHOWERS. PUERTO PLATA CURRENTLY IS REPORTING
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE...THEN
BECOMING AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA WITH A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF SO. NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 19N37W...TO 14N39W 10N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 51W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION OF
THE ITCZ.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE 1033 MB HIGH CENTER TO 32N44W 30N50W AND
22N62W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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