[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS OFF THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA
EAST COAST...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXCEEDING 35 KT.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE COAST N OF 29N THROUGH THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 18 HOURS THROUGH SUN MORNING OVER
WATERS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 66W...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 20-24 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N65W TO 10N65W
MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE WITH DRY
AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A WEST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N82W TO 9N82W
MOVING W AT 10 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION OF
THE WAVE. SSMI TPW SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N15W AND
EXTENDS TO 8N19N. THE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ AT
8N19W AND EXTENDS THROUGH 6N40W TO 6N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 11N36W TO 7N38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 36W AND
58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS RACING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N82W TO 23N87W TO 25N95W. DRY AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT. N TO NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 KT ARE OCCURRING N OF THIS COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORT THIS
COLD FRONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS INTO THE W ATLANTIC. DRY AIR WILL PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN...ONE OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH 19N82W TO THE BELIZE COAST NEAR 17N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. N TO NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION WITH THE
WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS JAMAICA...W CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W
INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF 18N.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH
NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST AFFECTING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N76W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N80W.
STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE ATLANTIC TO 29N59W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH THIS RIDGE IS COMBINING WITH PRE
FRONTAL ASCENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N
TO 29N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N61W TO 20N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. FAIR
WEATHER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE EAST OF 50W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR 30N65W TO
HISPANIOLA WHILE MERGING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF 28N.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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