[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG N-NW WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXCEEDING 35 KT. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE COAST N OF 28N THROUGH THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 18 HOURS THROUGH SUN MORNING OVER
WATERS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 65W...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 20-22 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W S OF 15N IS MOVING W THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE WAVE AS A TROUGH E OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N62W 21N60W
18N61W TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N58W TO 15N61W.

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W FROM 10N TO 18N...MOVING
W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT 10 KNOTS. A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE AREA OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FOUND S OF 15N W OF 78W.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W...THEN
TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 9N17W WHICH EXTENDS W TO 09N38W AND
WSW TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-28W.
RANDOM SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 28W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS RACING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE OBS OVER FLORIDA SHOW A MARKED
CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
STRONG FRONT. WITH COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE STILL RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
AS VERY STRONG GUSTS. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS IS
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LIFT NE. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL REACH 10-12
FT TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY OVER THE AREA DUE TO A
WEAKER COLD FRONT EXITING THE SE GULF...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY W ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION
AND INTERACTION WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
SEAS ARE ABOUT 2-4 FT IN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT IN THE S CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THEN
SLOW AS IT REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS SUN MORNING.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGE
BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10
FT AS BUILDING HIGH PRES TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT N OF AREA.
TRADES OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL MAKE A COMEBACK AS WELL.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH E
CUBA AND HAITI SUN. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL
CONTINUE WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE. A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLD AIR
MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TODAY WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO NW
CUBA TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT
WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLANTIC OUTSIDE
OF THE GALE WARNING AREA MENTIONED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. NW
SWELL GENERATED BY THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL PUSH SE ALONG THE
BAHAMAS REACHING CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI BY LATE MON.
MEANWHILE RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONG NE WINDS
OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL WEST ATLANTIC MON AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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