[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 23N78W...AND A NEW FRONT FROM 31N78W TO
29.5N80W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8
FEET TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. W WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 28N83W TO 26N87W TO 29N95W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 87W
AND 89W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N55W 17N58W 14N61W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
WAVE IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE WAVE. IT WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N62W 21N60W 18N61W TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 57W AND 60W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 18N54W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 10N TO
18N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS MIXED WITH PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...CURVING TO 8N16W AND 7N17W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 5N30W AND 4N47W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W AND
22W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....TO FLORIDA...AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARE
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO...
RACING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...TO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT...KMZG...KBBF...KGVX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...
KGHB...KVQT...KATP...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN
MANY AREAS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. THE
NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST FLORIDA IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN
WITH SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...FROM THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND
THE U.S.A...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N60W...AND TO 18N61W JUST OUTSIDE THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N62W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 20N55W
17N58W 14N61W IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 57W AND 60W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 18N54W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM GUATEMALA AND
HONDURAS ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN GENERAL
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.03 IN
BERMUDA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA
8NS PANAMA ALONG 8N/9N...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS MIXED WITH PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE
79W/80W TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF
10N72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 72W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.A.-TO FLORIDA-AND GULF OF
MEXICO TROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM FROM A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE SWATH OF
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM
GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE
AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WITH A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND
WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
AREA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 19N36W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 14N40W
AND 10N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 28N BETWEEN 31W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...AND OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION OF THE ITCZ.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N15W...TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY
ISLAND TO 23N30W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES
32N14W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE 1033 MB HIGH CENTER TO 32N42W 26N50W AND
21N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 60W...AND AWAY FROM THE
20N55W 17N58W 14N61W TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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