[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N71W TO 11N71W
MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE
MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 16 N.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
9N30W TO 8N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE COVERS THE TROPICS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 18W-45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC NORTHWARD ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE W GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS
MOVED INTO THE W ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL THE
GULF EXCEPT THE SW BASIN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W TO 21N97W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 24N98W. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EXTENDS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF
AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN AND UP TO 20 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN. DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF WITH COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDING FROM THE NW BASIN TO THE SE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TO
THE SE CONUS WITH E TO SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W N OF 15N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WINWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N74W TO 18N78W TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 15N83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. N TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF
THE COLD FRONT. TO THE S OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N82W TO 11N82W. THIS TROUGH IS IN AN
AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
76W AND 85W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N65W TO 16N65W OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND
DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE DECAYING FRONT. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INLAND OVER S AMERICA. THE
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W AND MERGE WITH THE
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH AND FRONT WILL ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
THROUGH MONDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE WINWARD PASSAGE IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE NW
COAST OF HAITI. THIS FRONT IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR HAITI TONIGHT WHILE A W MOVING SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM PUERTO RICO. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N63W TO 25N67W TO 20N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF
23N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
31N69W TO 26N72W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...W TO WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BECOME NW AT 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE E
CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N65W AND
EXTENDS TO 20N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC.
FARTHER EAST...A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N39W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 34W AND
44W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E
OF 57W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO
NEAR 31N55W TO 20N68W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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