[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N22W TO 13N22W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
1031 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED NO REFLECTION OF THE
WAVE AT THE SURFACE AND ONLY SLIGHT TROUGHING AT THE 850-700 MB
LEVELS. UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY DIAGNOSTICS AT THE 925 MB LEVEL
CONFIRMED A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 22W AND THE WAVE IS AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE IN TPW VALUES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W/54W S OF 10N IS PASSING OVER FRENCH
GUIANA INTO SURINAME AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE
AND EMBEDDED LARGELY WITHIN THE ITCZ. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN
52W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W S OF 10N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AT 700 MB ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA
OF 850 MB VORTICITY SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF GUYANA AND SURINAME. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 54W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 07N20W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N25W TO
01N35W TO 02N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES LISTED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
QUASI-STATIONARY MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE
ARKLATEX TODAY. ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
GULF  ALONG 93W TO 20N WITH STRONG DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH
AND 90W...THE FLOW WAS STRONGLY DIFFLUENT. THIS FLOW WAS AIDING
IN THE MAINTENANCE OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM 22N94W TO 29N91W.
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE LOCATED FURTHER EAST WITHIN
75-90 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N90W THROUGH 25N87.5W TO 28N86.5W AND
OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF
CONVECTION WERE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE GULF WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF 10 TO 15 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 27N
AND E OF 90W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MON AS
SURFACE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ALOFT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 73W.
MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF A FORMER TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
INTERIOR COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NICARAGUA AND ALSO OVER
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD
WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 70W. MID-MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE
AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH MON WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE WITHIN THE STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN CUTS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A PATCH OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND.
CURRENTLY SCATTERED LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. THE
PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH  PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ACTIVE
CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC W OF 55W WITH
AXIS ALONG 67W-70W AND POSITIVELY TILTED. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EXISTED W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF
75W. WITH A MODERATE SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ERUPTING WITHIN 20-40 NM OF
THE COAST FROM MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN NE
FLORIDA AND 45 NM SE OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. FURTHER
NORTH A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF
65W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED NEAR 28N74W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033
MB HIGH CENTERED S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W. A MID-TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 27N35W AND WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF TROUGHINESS N OF 20N BETWEEN 27W-45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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