[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N25W TO 11N25W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT THE SURFACE...ALOFT THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH VERY BROAD AND WEAK 850MB-700MB TROUGHING BETWEEN
22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN
23W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N56W TO 08N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED LARGELY LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SURINAME. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN
54W-58W. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO IMPACT AREAS TO THE
NE OF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N65W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AT 700 MB ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD
AREA OF 850 MB VORTICITY SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 60W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N20W TO 04N25W TO 01N37W TO 02N51W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES LISTED ABOVE...THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE W AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 07W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA
NEAR 31N93W THAT EXTENDS A BROAD TROUGH AXIS S-SE TO A BASE NEAR
23N91W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 29N91W S-SW TO 25N92W TO 20N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
AND ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. FARTHER EAST...AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LESSENS...MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME MORE DOMINANT E OF 90W WITH MID-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 85W-90W. CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTION ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS E-SE WINDS PREVAIL IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT EXISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 83W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA TO THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
ANALYZED ALONG 09N/10N. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 69W IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
CLOUDINESS...POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA ACROSS THE ABC
ISLANDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...A FEW SCATTERED
EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 15N
BETWEEN 66W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION THIS EVENING REMAINING W OF 74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT A
FEW EXTEND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
THIS EVENING. TO THE NORTHEAST...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
38N61W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW TO 32N64W TO 30N70W TO
32N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 57W AND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH
AXIS ALONG 26N BETWEEN 58W-75W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR
38N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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