[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH OF
13N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP IN TPW IMAGERY IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN
12W AND 15W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM THE COAST TO 6N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W...IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N...MOSTLY IN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF
VENEZUELA AND GUYANA AND TRINIDAD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR SOUTHWESTERN
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP BY THE
20W/21W TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 4N23W
TO 2N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N31W TO 3N42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 27W AND
33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
45W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF 85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...MOVES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND
90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS...KBQX...KGVX...KGUL...KGBK...KEIR...KGRY...KIKT...AND
KMIS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...
KXIH....KMDJ...KIPN...KVKY...AND KMIS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER VALLEY
OF TEXAS. SCATTERED AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF REGION. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM BAY CITY AND
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED FROM
VALPARAISO WESTWARD. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS TALLAHASSEE.
HAZE AND FOG AND A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH
CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING DIRECTLY THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N TO 11N80W TO THE COAST OF
NEAR 9N77W. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 8N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF
17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA AND CUBA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUD ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AS THE TROUGH IS
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.44 IN
GUADELOUPE.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 34N57W
31N66W 32N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W AND 80W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N36W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 31W AND
40W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N36W TO 29N46W 27N56W TO
29N80W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEAS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 16N40W TO 12N60W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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