[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COASTLINE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N16W TO 5N13W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BULGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING
NEAR 42W S OF 7N...MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
A REDUCTION IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH RESULTED IN A DECREASE OF
CONVECTION. THIS REDUCTION OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WAVE
POSITION IN RELATION TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 5N.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N55W TO INLAND SURINAME NEAR 2N54W...MOVING W-
NW NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS FROM 4N-8N.

A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N82W IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN BASIN...ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO THE E PAC
WATERS NEAR 4N81W. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO A 1010 MB LOW
OVER SENEGAL...THEN IT RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N16W
TO 4N25W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 4N26W AND CONTINUES TO
5N40W...IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N46W TO
5N52W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-31W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SW
ARKANSAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTS OF A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N95W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA TO 27N92W IN THE GULF. SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE N
OF 24N BETWEEN 84W-92W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM
THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW IS FUELING THIS CONVECTION AS WELL
AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW BASIN
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N95W TO 18N93W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WITHIN 20 NM OF IT. RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HR MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
AS THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING STRETCHES W-SW ROUGHLY TO E OF
89W. WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THIS REGION IS ALLOWING FOR S-SE
WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT. WEAKER WINDS NEAR 5 KT DOMINATE OVER THE
REMAINDER WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH LIFTING
PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE COVERING
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS E
OF A LINE FROM 17N67W TO 12N72W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND
ADJACENT WATERS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. OVER THE SW BASIN...A TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORTS ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OVER THE NW BASIN S OF 19N W OF 82W BEING SUPPORTED BY
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...TRADES WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN BASIN SATURDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
WESTWARD MOVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE BASE OF A TROUGH
ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE
ISLAND. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED BY SE WIND FLOW FROM THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS W OF 73W TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AS
WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. A
CONFLUENCE ZONE GENERATED BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS NE OF PUERTO RICO S OF 22N BETWEEN 51W-65W. A ZONE OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 36W-45W.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE
AZORES HIGH CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN N OF 19N MAINLY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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