[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP IN TPW IMAGERY IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN
14W AND 17W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 29/1800 UTC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 48W AND
55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG
6N23W 3N31W 3N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 4W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N
TO THE WEST OF 85W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH A
MEXICO RIDGE...MOVES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. SCATTERED
STRONG HAS BEEN IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 12N IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO 20N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING CLOUD CEILINGS...KMZG
AT 6000 FEET...KGVX AT 5000 FEET AND AT 6000 FEET...KGBK AT 500
FEET AND AT 5500 FEET...KGHB RANGING FROM 3400 FEET TO 6000
FEET...KSPR AT 6000 FEET...KMDJ AT 2000 FEET...KIKT AT 10000
FEET...KVOA AT 9500 FEET...KVKY AT 7500 FEET AND AT 8500 FEET...
AND KMIS AT 7000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE CORPUS CHRISTI
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS
PALACIOS...BAY CITY...ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...AND IN CONROE
TEXAS TO THE NORTH OF HOUSTON. THE VISIBILITY IS 2 MILES OR LESS
WITH FOG IN THE BEAUMONT AREA. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
LAKE. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE  FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF PANAMA CITY. A LOW
CLOUD CEILING AND A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG COVER
MARIANNA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS TALLAHASSEE. A
VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN
ST. PETERSBURG.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N74W...IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N76W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND
JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF
14N BETWEEN 72W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A TROUGH...AND THEN FOR THE
REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.23 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.21 IN GUADELOUPE.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
GIVING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS CUBA. THE TROUGH
EVENTUALLY CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND IT REACHES JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA...EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 21N AT THE COAST OF CUBA
TO 24N IN THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 34N53W TO 25N50W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 33N61W TO
31N68W BEYOND 32N75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
WAS 0.02 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN A CLOUD SHIELD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS...TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N28W...PASSING THROUGH 32N35W TO 29N41W 26N53W 27N70W
AND 29N80W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 54W TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 45W AND
56W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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