[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP IN TPW IMAGERY IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN
9W AND 16W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W TO THE SOUTH OF
9N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 29/1800 UTC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 48W AND
52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...INCLUDING IN PARTS OF NORTH-
EASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG
6N23W 4N30W 4N38W...AND ALONG 3N/4N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N
TO THE WEST OF 85W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH A CENTRAL MEXICO RIDGE...MOVES
FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N
TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING CLOUD CEILINGS...KGVX
AND KATP LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL...KGHB AND KMDJ LOW LEVEL...
AND KIKT MIDDLE LEVEL.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN
AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ALABAMA. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MARATHON KEY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N76W...IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N76W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W MOSTLY IN HAITI AND ITS
WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF
11N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUNTA CANA.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER
SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A TROUGH...AND THEN FOR THE
REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.23 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.21 IN GUADELOUPE.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
75W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
17N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
GIVING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS CUBA. THE TROUGH
EVENTUALLY CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND IT REACHES JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA...EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 35N57W TO 27N52W TO 24N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO 31N52W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
33N60W TO 32N70W BEYOND 33N79W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.02 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A CLOUD SHIELD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO
THE WEST OF 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N28W...PASSING THROUGH 32N36W TO 29N44W 26N55W 27N70W
AND 29N80W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 51W TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 45W AND
53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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